A soggy pattern is returning to the Great Lakes and Midwest before making its way into the Northeast. Ridge-rider storms are expected to bring repeated rounds of rain along the same path, and with the ground already saturated, it brings the risk of flash flooding. Full forecast:
THE TAKEAWAY
- A wet weather pattern returns to the Northern Tier, extending into the Northeast through midweek.
- A Level 1 out of 4 flood threat has been issued for portions of the region through Monday.
- Parts of the Great Lakes are experiencing their wettest year on record for 2026.
After a few quiet days across the Midwest and Great Lakes, a soggy pattern is set to return, bringing another round of heavy rain, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
The unsettled pattern will eventually shift into the Northeast by early this week.
(FOX Weather)
This renewed flood threat compounds an already saturated region: parts of the Great Lakes are experiencing their wettest year on record for 2026, the Midwest has faced life-threatening flash floods and the Northeast has also dealt with heavy flooding.
AT LEAST 90 AMERICANS REMAIN MISSING FOLLOWING DEADLY FLASH FLOOD THAT DEVASTATED NEPAL
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Flooding in Paterson, New Jersey, on July 28, 2026.
(WNYW) -
DEAL, NEW JERSEY, US – JULY 6: A view of flooded streets after heavy rain in Deal, New Jersey, on Monday, July 6, 2026.
((Photo by Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images)) -
FILE: Torrential rain leads to flash flooding in southern Indiana Saturday.
(Jeff-Craig Fire Department) -
FILE: Torrential rain leads to flash flooding in southern Indiana Saturday.
(Jeff-Craig Fire Department) -
Flooding in Albany, New York, area on July 29, 2026.
(@NYSDOTAlbany/x)
As a ridge of high pressure remains across the South, energy and storms will continue riding along its periphery from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast through early this week.
WHAT IS A RIDGE RIDER AND HOW DO THEY FORM?
Storms will be capable of intense rainfall rates and localized flash flooding through Monday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Sunday through Monday, an area of low pressure moving out of the Rockies will increase instability and moisture as it pushes into southern Canada, the FOX Forecast Center said.
As the system tracks northward, locally heavy rain will develop across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Rainfall rates of 1 to more than 2 inches per hour are possible.
(FOX Weather)
With daily rain chances and already saturated ground, a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk is in place through Monday, as the heaviest rain shifts into the Northeast around the ridge of high pressure to the south.
There is also an upgraded, wind-driven Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk in place for the Northern Plains on Sunday.
KARINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE IN THE PACIFIC, FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 3+ STORM
Rain has been quite the theme this year across parts of the Great Lakes. Green Bay has received more than 29 inches of rain so far this year, more than 7 inches above average, making 2026 the city’s wettest year on record, with records dating back 140 years.
Additionally, Alpena, Michigan, is more than 12 inches above average for the year, while Houghton Lake, Michigan, is more than 7 inches above average.
(FOX Weather)
Eventually, this moisture will surge eastward, potentially bringing several inches of rain to the Northeast into early to midweek.
Another Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk is present for the Northeast Monday and will likely be extended into Tuesday and Wednesday as heavier rain moves in, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
