The UK is about to face its fifth heatwave of the summer, with temperatuers expected to reach as high as 37°C in parts of the country.
Now, a study warns that this could be a mere taste of what’s to come.
Scientists from Sun Yat–sen University in Guangzhou, China, say that hot days could have even more hours of heat by the end of the century.
The team modelled various emissions scenarios, and found that in the most extreme situation, hot days could gain more than four extra hours of extreme heat by 2100.
Worryingly, these extra hours are expected to occur at night – a time when we usually get some relief from extreme heat.
‘The health implications by HHEs [hourly heat extremes] are profound,’ the scientists said in their study, published in Nature Climate Change.
‘Nighttime has been traditionally regarded as a relief from daytime heat, yet this is not the case under abnormally warm nights.
‘The rise of uninterrupted heat exposure throughout the night undermines this cooling window, increasing the risk of heat–related morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable populations.’
Scientists from Sun Yat–sen University in Guangzhou, China , say that hot days could have even more hours of heat by the end of the century
The UK is about to face its fifth heatwave of the summer, with temperatuers expected to reach as high as 37°C in parts of the country. Now, a study warns that this could be a mere taste of what’s to come
Extreme heat events are usually assessed using daily average, maximum, or minimum temperatures.
While this is valuable, the researchers decided to focus on shorter periods of extreme heat – hours.
The team studied global hourly data from 1981 to 2023, and found that land areas experience an average of 269 hours of extreme heat each summer.
Next, they used climate projections to predict how that might change under a high–emissions scenario.
Their projections suggest that by 2070–2099, each hot day could contain more than four additional hot hours compared with present–day levels.
However, heat exposure isn’t equal globally, according to the researchers.
‘The low– and middle–income countries bear the brunt of both current and future hourly heat exposure, despite contributing less to historical emissions,’ they explained.
Based on the findings, the team is calling for further research on the mechanisms that cause hourly heat extremes.
By 2070–2099, each hot day could contain more than four additional hot hours compared with present–day levels. However, heat exposure isn’t equal globally, according to the researchers
‘Future research should focus on the mechanisms that cause hourly heat extremes, such as heat bursts or flash heat events,’ they added.
‘Improved understanding of short–term heat events on an hourly scale could improve early warning systems, potential health risk assessments, and adaptation to a warming climate.’
The news comes shortly after data confirmed that Western Europe just experienced its hottest June–July period on record, with average temperatures sitting at a sweltering 21.62°C (70.9°F).
That is a whopping 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average, shattering the previous record set in 2022, as the continent reels from its fourth successive heatwave.
