Colorado State University is maintaining low odds for a major hurricane in its latest Atlantic forecast. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen to break down his exclusive analysis:
Typhoon Dolphin continues to develop as it tracks across the West Pacific, approaching the mainland of China.
This comes as the typhoon is currently equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane (previously Category 4 strength), but is not forecast to reach super typhoon status.
At one point, Dolphin reached super typhoon status, a storm with winds over 150 mph.
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The storm will approach the Ryukyu Islands on Thursday and into Friday and are forecast to be equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
(FOX Weather)
Eventually, the storm will slow and weaken to the equivalent of Category 1 strength before making landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, by Monday morning.
The major city of Shanghai will likely see impacts from the storm, including tropical storm-force winds and local flash flooding.
Meteorologists are fascinated by the amount of accumulated cyclone (ACE) energy that has been generated so far this hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
ACE is a wind energy index that measures the intensity and duration of tropical cyclones throughout hurricane season.
“Typically, an extremely active season is classified by an ACE value above 159.6,” the FOX Forecast Center said. “An above-normal season ranges from 126.1 to 159.6, while a below-normal season has an ACE value below 73.”
The typical range is 73-126.
For Typhoon Dolphin, the ACE value has already surpassed 43, as the Western Pacific region has also accumulated 165.6 ACE overall so far this season. The typical average for this time of year is around 81.4.
In light of the impending severe weather, the Pacific Basin, closer to the U.S., is on notice, with two new areas to watch emerging around Mexico and Hawaii.
Despite this, there is a low chance of development over the next week, but it is worth monitoring, as forecast models indicate potential tropical activity.
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Several forecast models suggest that Hawaii could be in the path of tropical storm activity in about nine or 10 days, keeping this threat on the radar for meteorologists.
