Tropical Storm Bertha is strengthening near the US Gulf Coast and is expected to take aim at multiple states this week – including a potential direct hit on New Orleans.
The second named Atlantic storm of hurricane season developed off the coast of Florida around 7pm ET Monday night and forecast models warn Bertha will spiral toward Louisiana and Texas over the next day.
Tropical storm warnings have already been issued along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, with meteorologists predicting that Bertha will bring dangerous flooding, high winds and potentially hazardous surf to millions.
Up to eight inches of rain and sustained winds of 40 to 60mph are expected to impact the entire Gulf region, including communities in the Florida Panhandle and major cities such as Mobile, New Orleans and Houston.
Forecasters with AccuWeather believe the tropical storm could make landfall as soon as Wednesday night, likely scoring a direct hit near the eastern Orleans Parish, which includes New Orleans East, the Lower Ninth Ward and neighborhoods closer to Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River’s eastern stretches.
Currently, Bertha’s exact path is still uncertain, with potential tracks showing it may stay at sea longer, resulting in a stronger storm.
Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: ‘A “hug-the-coast” scenario would keep overall winds weaker, however, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.’
The AccuWeather team added storm surges, where sea levels rise sharply, could reach as high as three feet for a stretch of more than 400 miles from Florida to western Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to strengthen and strike the US Gulf Coast as soon as Wednesday night
Forecast models warn that Bertha could make landfall in New Orleans this week
The National Hurricane Center said: ‘A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.’
Officials added that the risk for boaters and those living along the coast could be severe this week, with Bertha capable of capsizing and damaging vessels as it strengthens and moves west.
As of 9am ET Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Bertha had grown to carry sustained winds of 50 mph and was just south of Florida’s Panama City.
Spaghetti models for Bertha show the storm twisting toward the northwest over the next day, moving closer to Gulf Coast and spinning directing into the Louisiana’s Black Bay.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model’s guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
Meteorologists have noted that the Gulf may be spared a severe impact of the storm thanks to extreme wind shear blowing south from the northern US, which is slamming into Bertha and pushing thunderstorms away from the shore.
However, these winds may also push Bertha farther south, giving the relatively weak tropical storm a chance to strengthen into a bigger storm by using the warm waters of the Gulf as fuel.
Pictured: Tropical Storm Bertha forming in the Gulf of America
Pictured: Locals fill sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Bertha’s landfall at Morris FX Jeff Sr Park in Algiers, New Orleans
‘That would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period,’ DaSilva added in a statement.
‘Strengthening to perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case.’
This potential storm path would likely take Bertha toward the Texas coast, putting several communities which recently dealt with deadly flash floods in danger yet again.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill added: ‘The Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week.’
One year ago, the Texas Hill Country was devastated by a Fourth of July flood which killed over 130 people, including many young children at a local summer camp.
This is a breaking story. More details to follow.
