MONSOON SEASON: FOX Weather Meteorologist Haley Meier breaks down the lingering tropical activity in the Pacific Basin, as the start of Southwest monsoon season has arrived. Stay with FOX Weather for the latest:
Millions of Americans are gearing up for an El Niño threat across the Eastern Pacific with above-average water temperatures.
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
As we ease more into hurricane season, there have been only four named storms (Amanda, Boris, Cristina, and Douglas) in the basin thus far.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the average date of the fifth named storm is around July 23. Given the recent activity, it appears it will occur before then as we look further into this year’s forecast.
The latest update from NOAA confirms that a rapidly intensifying El Niño is officially underway across the tropical Pacific.
Over the last month, warmer water temperatures have surged well above average across a broad area of the Central and Pacific basins.
This graphic shows the latest updates on the Super El Niño.
This comes as a historically strong El Niño is likely to develop by this fall, around the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, with an 81% chance it could be the strongest on record.
NOAA also predicts a 97% chance that El Niño will persist through the upcoming winter and through spring.
As this lingering threat increases, it will certainly dampen travel plans for millions of Americans from August through March, as El Niño will disrupt weather patterns across North America.
“For travelers, the defining feature of a classic El Niño is a highly energized, subtropical jet stream that locks into place across the southern tier of the U.S.,” said the FOX Forecast Center. “This positions the storm track directly across the southern plains, the Gulf Coast and right up the Eastern Seaboard.”
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This graphic shows the potential rain departures across various locations.
As a result, anyone planning road trips or major flights through the Southern and Eastern U.S. this fall or winter should anticipate a high chance of travel delays due to the severe weather.
This setup will increase storm frequency and impacts, as experts at the FOX Forecast Center highlight locations that could experience the worst travel disruptions from weather events.
FILE – DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 20, 2019: A rain-covered window obscures the view through a terminal window of an United Express passenger plane at a gate at Denver International Airport in Denver, Colorado.
(Robert Alexander / Getty Images)
Worst places to travel
As you plan your vacation amid the severe season, we break down which locations may be most at risk of travel delays.
This graphic shows potential rainfall totals as the Super El Niño takes off in August.
As forecasters compared trends from recent Super El Niño events, they found that these locations had above-average rainfall and more days of measurable rainfall than in normal years.
This would make these locations the least ideal for travel, with a higher frequency of weather delays.
Heavy rain and lightning occur near Orlando International Airport (MCO) in Orlando, United States, on September 5, 2023.
(Ronaldo Silva/NurPhoto / Getty Images)
Best places to travel amid Super El Niño
As the Super El Niño continues its destructive development over the next few months, many locations may escape the wrath of severe weather and its travel delays.
This graphic shows potential travel impacts the upcoming Super El Niño could have on Lexington, Kentucky.
“Due to the sheer significance of a Super El Niño, the majority of the country never sees quite the opposite end of the spectrum,” said the FOX Forecast Center. “Most regions just hover near average for rain unless you find yourself in a more tropical climate.”
Thankfully, there are only a handful of bad places to travel this upcoming year, as meteorologists and travelers compare forecasts over the coming months to avoid travel delays and see what might be worth visiting amid severe conditions in some locations.
This graphic shows the probability of the storm strengthening.
El Niño conditions have historically favored above-average tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific. On average, the basin produces 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).
Be sure to check back to FOX Weather as we continue to monitor this Super El Niño and how it may impact travel plans this fall and winter.
