If you’ve noticed an exceptional number of red cards at the World Cup, you’re not imagining it.
A study has revealed that the number issued has more than tripled compared with the past two tournaments.
Scientists from Northeastern University reviewed match data, and found that a whopping 13 red cards have already been given out in North America.
For comparison, just four were issued in both 2018 and 2022.
So, what’s behind this rise in red cards?
According to the experts, advancements in the video assistant referee (VAR) are largely to blame.
‘Three of the red cards issued, for example, were initially designated as yellow-card offenses but were upgraded after referees viewed the VAR footage, the data shows,’ they explained.
‘Those included Qatar’s Homam Ahmed’s last-man foul on Canada’s Tajon Buchanan in a group-stage match on June 18; Qatar’s Assim Madibo’s leg-breaking tackle on Canada’s Ismaël Koné in that same group-stage match; and Iraq’s Rebin Sulaka’s DOGSO on Senegal’s Sadio Mané in a group-stage match on June 26.’
Scientists from Northeastern University reviewed match data, and found that a whopping 13 red cards have already been given out at this year’s tournament. For comparison, just four were issued in both 2018 and 2022
Referee Raphael Claus, of Brazil, holds up a red card after sending USA striker Folarin Balogun for an early bath
For their analysis, the team looked at the number of red and yellow cards given out at the World Cups in 2018, 2022, and so far this year.
Their results showed that yellow cards are actually down this year, with an average of 2.52 given out per game, compared to 3.20 per game in 2018, and 3.50 per game in 2022.
However, red cards are massively up.
On average, a game at this year’s World Cup has seen 0.141 red cards given out, compared to just 0.031 in 2018, and 0.016 in 2022.
As well as advancements in VAR, the researchers say that FIFA’s new rules and regulations around safe and ethical play could be influencing this rise.
‘Two of the 13 red cards issued this year, for example, were given to players who violated FIFA’s new rule that players cannot cover their mouths when talking to their opponents,’ they explained.
‘The first was issued to Paraguay’s Miguel Almiron in the country’s group-stage match against Turkey on June 19, and the second was issued to Ecuador’s Piero Hincapie during the country’s Round of 32 match against Mexico on Tuesday, June 30.’
As for why yellow cards are down – as well as fouls – the researchers also say FIFA’s new rules are to thank.
Balogun reacts after being sent of for USA in their round of 32 match against Boznia and Herzegovina
They added: ‘[We attribute this] to FIFA allowing games to flow more smoothly without stopping for minor skirmishes.’
The news comes shortly after a supercomputer revealed which nations are most likely to take home the trophy.
Built by scientists at the University of Liverpool, the supercomputer ran 1,000 simulations to predict every nation’s chance of winning the tournament.
According to the results, Spain are most likely to win, with their probability of glory at 26.1 per cent.
England are next on the list (17 per cent), ahead of France (13.5 per cent), Argentina (12.4 per cent) and Portugal (10.6 per cent).
‘Whilst our model agrees with the bookmakers in making Spain the favourites, Norway emerge as the standout dark horse, with a 3.6 per cent chance of winning the trophy across our simulations,’ said Dr Benjamin Holmes.
