The Atlantic is quiet for now, but the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring for tropical development off the Southeast mid-to-late next week as we head into the holiday weekend. FOX Weather Meteorologist Kiyana Lewis has the latest on what we could expect at this point.
With July 4th just around the corner, eyes are turning to waters off the Southeastern coast for possible tropical development through the holiday weekend.
So far this season, the Atlantic has only seen one named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, which was short-lived and disorganized over the Gulf.
FREEPORT, TEXAS – JUNE 17: Floodwater surrounds a neighborhood after Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall on June 17, 2026 in Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, stretching from the mid-to-upper Texas coast into Louisiana, as Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy downpour and flooding. Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
The FOX Forecast Center said that the focus of this possible tropical activity is a drawn-out area of low pressure that’s tied to leftover energy from a previous system, called a front zone, that will settle over the Southeast toward the middle of next week.
To the north of this, a major heat dome will be baking the East, and that’s where potential tropical activity could try to form, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Overview of potential tropical development factors in Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
Already, forecast models are highlighting multiple areas of low-level spin along this leftover energy around midweek.
These models are not very confident about the organization of any tropical systems at this point, but it’s worth paying attention to as we get closer.
AI forecast model possible tracks for tropical activity
(FOX Weather)
Despite the low odds of development, the FOX Forecast Center noted the subtropical Atlantic waters east of Florida are exceptionally warm, sitting well above average compared to the rest of the Atlantic basin for this time of year.
Additionally, hostile winds will not be as strong as they have been recently, which could allow for some tropical development.
The main limiting factor for any development will be the abundant dry air on both sides of the front.
Limiting factors to tropical development in the Atlantic
(FOX Weather)
Such limited moisture isn’t a great sign for tropical activity.
The FOX Forecast Center said if any organization does occur, steering flow under the previously mentioned heat dome would likely direct it back toward the U.S. mainland.
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In an average season, the Atlantic sees its B storm name by June 24 and its C name by July 6.
Heavy rain swells waterways in Boerne, Texas, triggering severe flooding Monday.
(City of Boerne/Facebook)
Outside this low-end threat, the rest of the Atlantic basin remains entirely closed for business with no tropical development expected through the end of the month, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Thick Saharan dust is expected to continue to suppress tropical activity, acting like a heavy blanket by drying out the atmosphere.
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In addition to the dust creating problems, computer forecast models are starting to crank up hostile winds heading into July, the FOX Forecast Center said.
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said a long fetch of very strong winds in the upper atmosphere is expected to take over much of the Atlantic basin, peaking over the Main Development Region of the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean.
This will significantly disrupt any tropical wave or burst of storms that tries to form.
For now, coastal residents don’t need to worry, but should keep a close eye on forecasts as we approach the July 4 holiday weekend.
Stick with FOX Weather for the latest forecasts as we get closer.
