A decades-old book that claims history repeats itself in predictable cycles is drawing fresh attention for a chilling prediction about the year 2026.
Published in 1997, The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe argues that American history unfolds in recurring 80-year cycles, each ending in a period of upheaval known as a ‘Crisis.’
The authors, who also coined the term ‘Millennials,’ predicted that this turbulent era would culminate in a dramatic resolution around 2026. Their forecast has sparked renewed interest due to several events that supporters say align with the book’s warnings.
The authors wrote that a crisis beginning in the mid-2000s would reach a climax around 2020, then move toward a final resolution six years later.
Some readers have linked that prediction to the COVID-19 pandemic, while others point to economic and social turmoil over the past two decades.
But the book’s vision of what comes next is far from reassuring, as Strauss and Howe warned that the resolution of the current cycle could fundamentally reshape America and could even threaten the nation’s survival.
Strauss and Howe wrote: ‘If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.
‘What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees.’
The authors cautioned that the current crisis and its eventual resolution could have profound consequences, writing: ‘It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – and perhaps even our nation – might never recover.’
The coming ‘resolution’ may sound positive, but the authors predict it could be cataclysmic
Although The Fourth Turning did not specifically predict events such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic, supporters argue it accurately forecast the broader direction of the US.
The book warned that America was heading toward a period of deep instability marked by economic turmoil, political division, declining trust in institutions and a series of national crises.
Believers often point to 9/11, the financial crash and the pandemic as events that fit the theory’s predicted crisis era.
They also note that the authors suggested the turmoil would reach a climax around 2020, which they say aligns with the Covid-19 pandemic, social unrest and political upheaval that year.
Critics, however, argue the predictions were broad enough that major events can be retroactively matched to the theory, noting that the authors never specifically forecast any of those crises.
The book’s most alarming warnings focus on what the authors believed could happen if the crisis era reaches its breaking point.
Strauss and Howe argued that societies throughout history have often collapsed under the weight of war, disease, political turmoil or economic catastrophe. America, they warned, should not assume it is immune from the same fate.
The pair suggested the next great crisis could take many forms, ranging from a devastating war or pandemic to terrorism, civil unrest or even authoritarian rule.
The book had chillingly specific predictions for 2026 – which sees the climax of a period of change the authors describe as ‘the Crisis’.
‘As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to barbarism,’ they wrote.
The authors warned that a future crisis could bring consequences far worse than anything experienced by modern generations, adding that Americans should not assume the nation would always be spared from ‘debasement and total ruin.’
At the heart of the theory is the belief that American history moves through repeating cycles lasting roughly 80 years, each divided into four phases: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and finally a Crisis, known as the Fourth Turning.
According to Strauss and Howe, the United States is now nearing the end of a cycle that began after World War II. Earlier cycles, they argued, culminated in defining national upheavals such as the American Revolution, the Civil War and World War II.
The theory later gained renewed attention after the 2008 financial crisis, which some supporters viewed as evidence that the Fourth Turning had already begun.
The book also made observations about declining faith in the American Dream that many supporters now view as strikingly prescient.
Strauss and Howe wrote that Americans were becoming increasingly optimistic about their own futures while losing confidence in the prospects of their children and the nation as a whole.
Nearly three decades later, some readers argue those concerns have become a defining feature of modern American life.
Following Strauss’s death in 2007, Howe revisited the theory in his 2023 book
The Fourth Turning Is Here. While he pushed the expected climax further into the 2030s, he maintained that the current period of instability is part of the same historical cycle.
Despite its bleak warnings, Howe argues the theory ultimately offers a hopeful message.
Just as previous crisis eras eventually gave way to periods of rebuilding and renewal, he believes the current turmoil will eventually pass, potentially ushering in a new era of civic trust, stability and social cohesion by the mid-2030s.
