As the severe weather shifts Northeast, a flood threat extends from the Great Lakes into northern Texas on Sunday and into Monday. South of this front, strong southerly flow will pull rich Gulf moisture into the Deep South. Due to this influx of deep tropical moisture and lingering instability, periods of heavy rain and training thunderstorms are likely through the end of the weekend and into next week. Stay with FOX Weather for the latest:
The return of an active weather pattern kicks off with a significant threat of severe weather and flooding in the South from now through Tuesday.
An area of low pressure intensified as it tracked into the Central Plains Saturday afternoon, bolstered by an intensifying low-level jet and an ejecting upper-level shortwave trough.
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A cold front drapes southward from this low through Kansas and Texas, while a warm front extends north into the Great Lakes.
In the warm sector south of the warm front, hot temperatures and high humidity fueled strong atmospheric instability on Saturday, as steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region.
As this area of low pressure moves northeast, the trailing cold front will slow down, extending from the Great Lakes into northern Texas by Sunday and Monday.
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South of this front, strong southerly flow will pull rich Gulf moisture into the Deep South—moisture previously associated with the tropical area of interest in the Bay of Campeche, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Due to this influx of deep tropical moisture and lingering instability, periods of heavy rain and training thunderstorms are likely through the end of the weekend and into next week.
Multi-day flash flood outlook in the South.
Consequently, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 4) for flash flooding on Sunday across parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Louisiana and Mississippi.
Through early next week, widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible from Texas through Tennessee, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches or more.
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With the latest models showing this front stalling and multiple rounds of rain continuing into the middle of next week, the risk of flash flooding will likely persist and may expand.
