If you’re planning a holiday to Cairo, Bangkok, Hanoi or Jaipur, you might want to reconsider your travel plans.
A new study has revealed the cities where people are most at risk from rising global temperatures as El Nino arrives – with these popular tourist destinations ranked in the top 50.
Scientists from the University of Oxford analysed the hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity of 220 major cities.
And their results show that more than 95 per cent of the most at–risk cities are in South and Southeast Asia, and Sub–Saharan Africa.
‘It isn’t just exposure to hot temperatures that matters for risk,’ explained lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam.
‘Our study highlights the importance of multi–faceted global heat risk assessments, which reveal the diverse pathways through which urban heat risk emerges.
‘In many major cities, particularly across Asia and Africa, extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited coping capacity.
‘This combination can substantially increase heat risk and, in some cases, have life–threatening consequences.’
A new study has revealed the cities where people are most at risk from rising global temperatures as El Nino arrives – with these popular tourist destinations ranked in the top 50
With El Nino officially declared by the NOAA, extreme heat is emerging as one of the most dangerous threats facing people around the world
With El Nino officially declared by the NOAA, extreme heat is emerging as one of the most dangerous threats facing people around the world.
However, until now, the risk across major cities has remained unclear.
Writing in their study, published in Sustainable Cities and Societies, the team explained: ‘Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, driving excess mortality, infrastructure failures, and economic losses in cities worldwide.
‘With over half of the global population currently residing in cities and projections indicating that two–thirds will do so by 2050, cities are becoming critical hotspots of climate impact.’
For the study, the team ranked 220 cities with a population of over one million, using a core set of risk indicators.
The factors considered include the demographic and socioeconomic conditions that increase susceptibility to heat–related illness and mortality, such as age and financial means.
In addition, the team factored in access to cooling infrastructure such as air conditioning, and ecological buffers such as tree cover.
The results revealed that almost all the most at–risk cities are in South and Southeast Asia, and Sub–Saharan Africa.
For the study, the team ranked 220 cities with a population of over one million, using a core set of risk indicators – including Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability, and Lack of Coping Capacity
Al Basrah, Iraq, tops the list as the city most vulnerable to extreme heat, ahead of Ahmadabad in India, Bamako in Mali, and Nagpur in India.
Several tourist hotspots are also flagged as high risk destinations.
Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam is 16th on the list, while Cairo in Egypt comes in 22nd, and Bangkok in Thailand is 38th.
At the other end of the list, London was found to be the least vulnerable city of the 220 analysed, while Glasgow and Birmingham came in 215th and 213th places, respectively.
Jesus Lizana, co–author of the study, said: ‘This study provides the first globally harmonised and directly comparable assessment of urban heat risk across cities worldwide.
‘This provides a powerful tool for identifying where adaptation efforts are most urgently needed and, in the future, as datasets continue to improve, future iterations of this framework could support the monitoring of climate adaptation progress and urban heat resilience at the global scale.’
Overall, the researchers hope the findings will highlight the urgent need for mitigation measures around the world.
‘Our study shows that heat risk planning needs to explicitly address not just exposure to high temperatures, but vulnerability and coping capacity,’ said Radhika Khosla, co–author of the study.
‘Air conditioning demand is increasing worldwide, but many cannot afford it.
‘And if we over–rely on this energy–intensive form of cooling, we risk further global warming in a vicious cycle.
‘In order to scale adaptation and thermal comfort for all, we must consider a nuanced approach to keeping people safe, sequencing solutions with passive cooling and low–energy technologies such as fans and coolers being the first step.’
