An area of interest may form in the Gulf of America as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season gets underway. FOX Weather Meteorologists Stephen Morgan and Marissa Torres break down how a stalled front could be the focus for tropical activity.
A developing storm system in the Gulf is being watched by the FOX Forecast Center during the first week of the Atlantic hurricane season and will likely begin to bring heavy rain to Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
Although tropical development is not expected with this system, it bears watching because so-called “homegrown” storms historically make up the majority of June tropical threats.
SEVERE STORMS SHIFT NORTH AMID BORDER-TO-BORDER FLOOD THREAT TARGETING CENTRAL US
FILE – Flooding in New Orleans on May 9, 2025.
(Chris Welty/WVUE FOX 8 / FOX Weather)
A frontal boundary — the dividing line between dry air to the west and humid Gulf air surging northward — is fueling severe weather across parts of the Southeast Tuesday.
By late Wednesday, this front is expected to move into the Gulf, where a weak storm system may begin to develop along the tail end of the boundary.
SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT MOUNTS ACROSS GULF COAST AND FLORIDA AS COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS
(FOX Weather)
While sea surface temperatures are running slightly above average in the Gulf — conditions conducive to development — the FOX Forecast Center does not expect this system to ever become fully tropical.
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“By that, we mean the power engine for the low pressure will not be the warm Gulf water temperatures that typically fuel and strengthen a tropical system,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
“Instead, the low pressure appears to remain rooted along the frontal boundary, which is not representative of a fully tropical system.”
(FOX Weather)
Additionally, strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere across the Gulf are expected to prevent thunderstorms from organizing and intensifying, further limiting the system’s chances of becoming tropical.
However, there is enough moisture in the atmosphere for these storms to produce heavy rain, which could lead to street flooding along the Gulf Coast beginning Thursday.
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Even though tropical development is not expected, this system will likely produce coastal flooding, rough surf and rip currents along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.
(FOX Weather)
Exactly where and when the most intense rain will set up remains something of an open question, with the forecast being refined through the week and rain expected to stick around the region into Saturday.
Much of the Southeast has seen several rounds of soaking storms over the last two weeks and could be vulnerable to additional flash flooding.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
