Scientists have warned that an imminent ‘super El Niño’ could be even more powerful than a previous event which caused over 50 million deaths.
The 1877 El Niño was one of the most severe climate events in recorded history, triggering a global humanitarian disaster known as The Great Famine.
Climate reconstructions suggest water temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean rose by 2.7°C (4.86°F), which caused disruption to rainfall patterns around the world.
Estimates indicate the resulting scarcity of food and disease outbreaks killed up to four per cent of the Earth’s population at the time.
That would be the equivalent of at least 250 million people if it happened today.
Now, forecasts suggest water temperatures could potentially exceed 3°C (5.4°F) above average later this year – making the upcoming super El Niño even more powerful than the one nearly 150 years ago.
‘Simultaneous multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again,’ Deepti Singh, associate professor at Washington State University, told the Washington Post.
‘What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme.’
Scientists warn that a so–called ‘super El Niño’ could push global temperatures (pictured) to record–breaking highs
Professor Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York at Albany, says that there is ‘real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years’
Many climate historians think the 1877–78 event reshaped world history and some consider it one of the first ‘truly global climate disasters’.
Drought conditions, which had already been developing for several years, were intensified – causing crops to collapse across huge areas.
India was among the worst–hit regions as monsoon rains disappeared, while Northern China suffered devastating dry spells that led to harvest failures.
In Brazil rivers dried up and agriculture collapsed, while parts of Africa, southeast Asia and Australia also experienced severe drought and forest fires.
The resulting famine weakened societies, intensified colonial control in some regions, accelerated migration and exposed how vulnerable global food systems were to climate shocks.
There were also outbreaks of malaria, plague, dysentery, smallpox and cholera across weakened populations.
Paul Roundy, from the State University of New York at Albany, said this year could be ‘potentially the biggest El Niño event since 1877’.
Meanwhile climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe said it could have a ‘profound impact on human society and human wellbeing.’
Measurements last month show that the daily average over the extra–polar regions inched toward the record values seen in 2024
When a strong El Niño year adds to the warming already happening due to climate change, it can cause temperatures to jump far higher than normal
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern which cycles between a hot El Niño and a cool La Niña phase every two to seven years.
During the El Niño part of the cycle, warm waters that build up in the Pacific spread out and raise the Earth’s average surface temperature.
This heat ends up escaping into the atmosphere, raising our planet’s temperature for months.
Where this ocean surface warming exceeds 2°C (3.6°F), the event is often referred to as a ‘super El Niño’, although scientists themselves don’t use the term.
Current measurements show that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising faster than at any other time this century.
While it is not yet certain, this is a very strong sign that a powerful El Niño weather pattern is brewing.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, said: ‘Climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.
‘Models indicate that this may be a strong event.’
The Met Office’s modelling suggests that sea surface temperatures could reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average, adding that this could be the ‘strongest El Niño event so far this century’.
Meanwhile, the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts there is a one in four chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño, with temperature anomalies over 2°C (3.6°F).
And the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts says it could rise by as much as 3°C (5.4°F)
Despite concerns over the potential impact of a super El Niño, experts said the world is now much more prepared to deal with the consequences thanks to advancements in climate monitoring and prediction.
They said the devastating losses associated with the 1877 aren’t likely to repeat today because the social, political and economic factors that exacerbated the effects no longer exist.
However, such an extreme event could still have significant impacts on food security, which could have effects across the world.
WHAT IS THE EL NINO PHENOMENON IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN?
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases (respectively) of a recurring climate phenomenon across the tropical Pacific – the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ‘ENSO’ for short.
The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, winds and precipitation.
These changes disrupt air movement and affect global climate.
ENSO has three phases it can be:
- El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall becomes reduced while rainfall increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction from west to east.
- La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.
- Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.
Maps showing the most commonly experienced impacts related to El Niño (‘warm episode,’ top) and La Niña (‘cold episode,’ bottom) during the period December to February, when both phenomena tend to be at their strongest
Source: Climate.gov
