WASHINGTON — Rep. Christian Menefee leads Rep. Al Green by 7 percentage points heading into the final days of the runoff, according to a new poll of the closely watched race between two Houston Democratic members of Congress.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs polled likely voters in two Houston-area contests — the heavily Democratic 18th Congressional District, where Green and Menefee are running, and the red-leaning 9th Congressional District’s Republican runoff between state Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park, and Army veteran Alex Mealer.
In the 18th District, the poll found Menefee garnering 50% of the vote to Green’s 43%. The poll was conducted from May 5 to 8 and included a sample of 800 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points.
The two are running against one another after Texas GOP legislators redrew the state’s congressional map last summer, moving the 9th District, which Green has represented for over 20 years, to new territory that favors the GOP, and in the process putting a large share of Green’s current constituents into the new 18th District.
The race pits the 38-year-old Menefee, who was elected in January to finish out the late Sylvester Turner’s term in the 18th District, against the 78-year-old Green.
In the March primary, Menefee finished first with 46% of the vote to Green’s 44.2%. The winner will be decided in a May 26 runoff because neither won a majority of the vote in round one.
The UH poll found Green narrowly leading, 48% to 45%, with Black voters, who make up a majority of the district and especially of the Democratic primary electorate. But Menefee is up by a 33-point margin with white voters and by 18 points with Latino voters.
Long a bastion of Black political power in Houston, the 18th Congressional District is one of two majority-Black districts in Texas’ new map. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s dismantling of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which has kicked off a mad dash among Republican-led Southern states to break up majority-Black seats, the contest has taken on new resonance. And the politics of age have played a prominent role throughout the primary, given that two of the district’s representatives have died in office in the past two years.
The poll found that Menefee leads heavily with voters under 55, while the over-55 vote is split close to evenly.
In the 9th District, the UH poll found Mealer, a former Harris County judge GOP nominee, leads the Republican runoff against Cain, 50% to 41%.
The two emerged from a crowded March primary in which Mealer finished first with 36% and Cain came in second with 31%. The poll was fielded from May 5 to 9 with a survey population of 400 likely runoff voters and a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points.
The 9th District was completely redrawn by the Texas Legislature to favor Republicans, with a new makeup that would have voted for Donald Trump by a 19-point margin in 2024. Narrowly majority-Hispanic, it encompasses eastern parts of Harris County, including the Houston Ship Channel, Pasadena and Deer Park, as well as heavily Republican Liberty County.
Mealer is well-known from her 2022 challenge to Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, in which she came within 2 percentage points of flipping the seat, and received a boost in February when Trump endorsed her. Cain, who has represented Deer Park and La Porte in the Legislature for a decade, is backed by Gov. Greg Abbott.
The UH poll found Mealer winning women, white voters, voters older than 55 and independents by double-digit margins.
Third-place candidate Steve Stockman, a former representative who won 16% of the vote in March, endorsed Cain on Monday. The poll, which was conducted before the endorsement, found Stockman voters breaking close to evenly: 46% for Cain and 44% for Mealer.
Democrat Leticia Gutierrez, an environmental advocate, is waiting for the Republican nominee on the other side of the runoff.
Disclosure: University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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