Virginia and New Jersey could serve as some of the first bellwethers over voters’ attitudes toward President Trump’s policies, Elon Musk and his slashing of the federal bureaucracy, and the salience of key issues this November.
Voters will head to the polls in both states to elect their next governor and weigh in on important state legislative elections. While there will certainly be local issues at play, the elections will also take place nearly a year into Trump’s second term, during which he, Musk and members of his administration are quickly shaking up Washington.
Meanwhile, a separate election will be playing out in New York City as Mayor Eric Adams, who’s been embroiled in a corruption probe, faces a tough road ahead to reelection.
Here are five storylines to look out for ahead of this November’s elections:
What are the economic impacts of President Trump’s policies?
One issue that will play a deciding factor in this year’s elections will be the economy and inflation, swaying voters to choose one party over the other — fairly or not.
Yet, the Trump administration’s policies will also factor into that equation. Trump has made tariffs a focal point within his economic policy. He’s already imposed a 10 percent tariff against China, which later slapped retaliatory tariffs back on the U.S. as he vows to double it next month.
Trump is also on track to institute a 25 percent tariff against Canada and Mexico over frustrations around drug trafficking and migrants entering the country. Canadian energy imports, however, will only see a 10 percent tariff.
The tariffs have led to concerns that Americans could ultimately bear the brunt of the taxes, with companies passing on those costs to the consumer.
Trump mentioned the potential tariffs of all three countries earlier this month on his Truth Social platform, saying, “Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!). But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid.”
Whether the tariffs hit American companies and voters’ pocketbooks, however, can shift the dynamics of critical elections for Republicans.
Republicans in Congress are also looking to pass some of Trump’s key priorities, including extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and potentially getting rid of taxes on tips – something Trump pushed for during his 2024 campaign. The party is now at a bit of a crossroads with Senate and House Republicans having adopted their respective budget resolutions, though there’s particular angst that the cuts that House Republicans are looking to achieve would have to include major cuts to Medicaid.
How do Elon Musk’s actions play with voters?
Elon Musk has rapidly shaken up Washington and the government as his advisory Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has looked to eliminate “waste, fraud and abuse.” In their endeavor, they’ve slashed federal jobs at a breakneck speed and have demanded federal workers explain their accomplishments or risk dismissal.
That’s led some agencies to frantically rehire recently fired employees and has exposed fissures between Musk and his team and different departments, some of whom have pressed employees not to respond to emails inquiring about their accomplishments.
Even the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) later noted responding to the email was voluntary, though some agencies are moving forward with inquiring about employees’ accomplishments.
The efforts have sparked spirited town halls with constituents who have expressed anger over Musk and DOGE’s efforts.
Musk and DOGE’s actions have also spurred criticism from Democrats and even some Republicans. But the impact of cuts to the federal workforce could also impact elections in Virginia for example, which is home to about 145,000 government workers, not to mention military service members and federal contractors. Some Democrats believe it’ll be a key issue by November, while some Republicans are not as concerned over its electoral impacts.
What does Eric Adams do amid former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s expected entry?
New York City Mayor Eric Adams is facing a tough road ahead as he runs for reelection in the Big Apple. Adams is embroiled in a federal corruption probe, with prosecuting alleging he “used his prominent positions in New York City government to obtain illegal campaign contributions and luxury travel” and that these benefits were “solicited and accepted” from foreign nationals and businesspeople, among others.
Adams has pled not guilty and denied any wrongdoing. A Justice Department official made a surprising move last month, stepping in to ask that the case be dismissed, arguing that it impacts Adams’s efforts to tackle illegal immigration and “improperly interfered” with his reelection bid, leading multiple officials to resign in response to the request.
The Justice Department, ultimately, asked that the charges against Adams be dropped.
And while Adams has looked to dismiss his case, he’s likely to stare down a treacherous path to reelection, particularly as Democrats wait to see whether former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who resigned in 2021 following a report from the state attorney general’s office which found that Cuomo had sexually harassed multiple women, enters the race. Cuomo has denied any wrongdoing.
While Adams has said he’s running, questions remain over whether the New York City mayor will ultimately run again as he faces an expectedly tough primary and his own legal controversy.
Does immigration feel as hot of an issue in November as it was last year?
One key issue Republicans and some Democrats leaned into during the 2024 election cycle was immigration – an issue that found its way among border and non-border states alike.
Less clear is whether that issue will be seen as a salient one among voters in Virginia and New Jersey in particular, which are not border states. Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate Winsome Sears has already leaned into the issue, alleging that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger “voted” for sanctuary cities and open borders.
Spanberger, meanwhile, has leaned into her background in law enforcement and the CIA. A centrist Democrat while serving in the House, Spanberger has previously said she supports hiring more Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers and worked on legislation targeting immigration, including the Securing America’s Borders Against Fentanyl Act that was included in former President Biden’s fiscal 2023 annual defense policy legislation. At the same time, she has voted against some immigration legislation, such as the Laken Riley Act in 2024.
One poll from the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released in January found the top issue facing Virginia was the economy (59 percent), while immigration registered at 7 percent.
Candidates in New Jersey see it as a part of their platform. GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, for example, said on his campaign website that he would “repeal the Immigrant Trust Directive (Sanctuary State policy) and ban municipalities from declaring themselves Sanctuary Cities.”
Does Musk spend in other races beyond Wisconsin?
Musk’s America PAC is already getting involved in one major race this cycle – an election for a vacant seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court that will determine whether the high court remains a liberal one or flips back to a conservative one.
America PAC has already spent $3.2 million in the race between canvassing and field operations to support conservative candidate Brad Schimel and online advertising to oppose liberal candidate Susan Crawford, among other expenditures, according to the latest state campaign filing on Friday.
Building America’s Future, which has reportedly received funding from Musk in the past, has separately spent $2 million so far in the race.
The spending has underscored Musk’s increasing influence within the GOP, which spent hundreds of millions of dollars in 2024 to support Trump. One looming question is whether Musk wades into races in Virginia, New Jersey and even potentially New York City.
